Harga emas dan perak telah memulakan pendakian nya bermula dari malam tadi. Harga emas telah naik sehingga USD1620/oz atau hampir 4% dalam masa 24jam.
Jawapanya : sumber dari Kitco News
(Kitco News) -Anemic U.S. jobs growth has rekindled ideas that the Federal Reserve might eventually undertake further easing measures, sending spot gold back above $1,600 an ounce for the first time in three weeks.
Hopes for further accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Open Market Committee abated earlier this year after non-farm payrolls grew for three straight months by more than 200,000 jobs. But now, the monthly jobs gains have disappointed for three months in a row.
The Labor Department reported early Friday that non-farm payrolls climbed just 69,000 in May, when consensus expectations compiled by various news organizations had been for around 150,000 to 170,000. Further, the number of new jobs was revised downward for each of the two prior months. April jobs gains were reduced to 77,000 from an original estimate of 115,000, while new March jobs are now listed at 143,000 rather than the previously reported 154,000.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy with Brown Brothers Harriman, called the data “shockingly poor” and “simply terrible.”
“The jobs data and revisions would seem to raise the risk of new action by the Federal Reserve as the job growth is stalling,” he said.
An extension of the Fed’s so-called Operation Twist now “may be a more realistic possibility,” Chandler said. Operation Twist is the term market participants use for the Fed’s Maturity Extension Program, under which it was selling short-term Treasury securities through the end of June and using the proceeds to buy longer-term securities, thereby pushing down long-term yields. The target for federal funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other to borrow funds overnight, is already near zero.
Nomura Global Economics also said the odds of further Fed action have increased, although the firm is not necessarily expecting action at the June FOMC meeting. Nomura economists said anxiety about the outlook appears to have led many employers to put hiring plans on hold.
“Despite the weak report, we have not changed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting, in which we expect the FOMC to decide to complete the Maturity Extension Program as scheduled,” Nomura said in a note to clients. “Nevertheless, today’s report clearly raises the probability that the FOMC will decide to provide further accommodation.”
Gold Soars In Wake Of Weak Jobs Data
Those increased expectations for further Fed easing meant gold traders wasted no time bidding the yellow metal higher after the jobs report.
“I think it’s playing into it huge,” said Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures. “Do I think they’re going to roll out QE3 (third round of quantitative easing) next week? No. But I think you’re going to see people talking about it. It’s right back on the table.”
Besides the weak jobs growth itself, another worrisome detail was a decline of 0.1 hour in the average workweek, Nedoss said. Employers are less likely to hire new people when their workforce collectively is working less each month, he said.
As of 10:22 a.m. EDT, gold for August delivery was $52.40, or 3.4%, higher at $1,616.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal had traded as low as $1,545.50 overnight and was still in negative territory a minute before the jobs report, before skyrocketing since. Spot gold was up $54.80 to $1,614.80. Gold hit its most muscular levels since May 8 at $1,619.30 in the most-active August contract and $1,617.70 for spot metal.
“People saw the figures and said ‘there will some sort of stimulus on two continents at some point,’” said George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. He was referring to Europe as well as the U.S.
Gold is acting as a “port in a storm,” Gero said.
“After the U.S. figures came out, a lot of people looked and said there is a slowdown in China and there is a very weak jobs report in the U.S. There is turmoil…in Europe,” he said.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance, said the rally is gaining extra strength from short covering. This is buying by traders to cover, or exit, short positions in which they had previously sold. While weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has shown that speculators had remained net long, they also reflected a rising number of gross shorts in recent weeks.
Nedoss suggested the recently stronger U.S. dollar and bond markets have become “crowded” and that “value seekers” are looking for alternatives, including gold.
August gold gained technical momentum on the ascent, taking out Thursday’s high, the 10-day moving average near $1,573 and the 20-day average near $1,582. “We’re back above the 20-day average for the first time since back in early May,” Nedoss added.
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